Regular readers of the blog know that I’ve been split between “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar” for the Best Picture Oscar. Recently, though, it’s seemed to me that “Avatar” has gained the upper hand.

Here’s part of the reason why: If “The Hurt Locker” were to win Best Picture, it likely would become the lowest-grossing movie of modern times to take the top Oscar. According to the Web site boxofficemojo.com, “The Hurt Locker” has earned $12.6 million at the domestic box office.

The lowest-grossing Best Picture winner listed by boxofficemojo is the 1987 winner, “The Last Emperor,” which clocked in at $43.9 million. (The listings on the site stop with 1978′s “The Deer Hunter,” but truthfully, if you go much further back than that, it’s hard to make valid comparisons what with inflation and other factors.)

Now, Summit Entertainment certainly will rush “The Hurt Locker” back into theaters if the movie does well at the Oscars, but it’s hard to imagine that it would more than triple its take during another run. (Actually, you know,  “The Hurt Locker” is showing at the Darkside in Corvallis, and I recommend you see it there; it’s a very good movie with a great performance from Jeremy Renner and some spectacularly staged sequences, including an astonishing first 10 minutes.)

By contrast — and the comparison is a little unfair, but it is what it is — “Avatar” has made $692.9 million at the domestic box office. That’s a gap that might be too much to jump, even for The Little Movie That Could.

Especially now that some veterans are starting to question the authenticity of “The Hurt Locker” (seems to me the timing of these complaints is a little suspicious, but what the heck), it looks like “Avatar” has seized the inside track for Best Picture — but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Kathryn Bigelow win for Best Director.