As arts and entertainment editor Tyler Hansen promised in this week’s Entertainer, we’re running an Academy Awards contest this year in which the winner will walk away with a $40 gift certificate to the Darkside Cinema.
All you have to do is beat
my predictions. How hard can that be?
Actually, you don’t have to beat my predictions: We’ll hand over the gift certificate to the reader who makes the most correct Oscar predictions. (In the case of a tie, we’ll have a tiebreaker. If we still have a tie, we’ll have a drawing among the eligible entries for the winner.)
But you have to predict all 24 Oscar categories. And you have to e-mail your predictions to Tyler at the Entertainer. Here’s the e-mail address: firstname.lastname@example.org. Your entries have to be in Tyler’s hands by Feb. 26. G-T photographer Scobel Wiggins can participate, but she cannot win the gift certificate. Sorry, Scobel!
The Oscars are handed out on Feb. 27.
For my part, I feel I need a little more time to hash out some of the close categories — and this year actually seems to have more than its share of those. I also have made the mistake this year of actually seeing many of the films, and I can’t emphasize this enough: That never helps in making Oscar predictions.
So this could be a bad year for me. Typically, I get about 16 or 17 of the 24 categories correct.
Here’s the deal: I’ll give you a peek right now at how I’m leaning in all the categories. If I’m reasonably sure about a prediction, I’ll lock it down. I’ll lock all the predictions down by next Friday. If you want to disagree, or talk some Oscar trash, I’m ready for that. Bring it on.
Here we go:
– Picture: I’m just about to buy the hype that “The King’s Speech” has overtaken “The Social Network.” But I’m not ready to lock it down. And you’re fooling yourself if you think any other picture has a shot.
Actor: Colin Firth for “The King’s Speech.” It’s a lock.
Actress: Natalie Portman for “Black Swan.” But Annette Bening is closing fast for “The Kids are All Right.”
Supporting actor: Christian Bale for “The Fighter.” It’s just about a lock, but if the night turns into a rout for “King’s Speech,” Geoffrey Rush could pull the upset.
Supporting actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter,” although her Oscar promotional campaign has cost her – possibly to the point of letting Hailee Steinfeld of “True Grit” score the upset.
Director: David Fincher for “The Social Network.” Tom Hooper lurks if the night turns into a “King’s Speech” runaway.
Original screenplay: David Seidler, “The King’s Speech.” It’s a lock.
Adapted screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network.” It’s a lock.
Editing: “The Social Network.” Just about a lock, although I’ll explain next week why I’m not quite ready to call it.
Cinematography: Roger Deakins, “True Grit.” Possibly, “The King’s Speech.” But I have some of the same doubts here that I have in the editing category.
Art direction: “Alice in Wonderland.” It’s a lock.
Original score: Alexandre Desplat has the edge for “The King’s Speech.” Possible winners: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for “The Social Network” and Hans Zimmer for “Inception.”
Original song: “If I Rise,” from “127 Hours.” But I have some doubts.
Costume design: “Alice in Wonderland.” This is close to a lock, but I’ll have more to say about this category next week.
Makeup: “The Wolfman.” Just about a lock.
Sound editing: “Inception.”
Sound mixing: “Inception.” Lock.
Visual effects: “Inception.” Lock, of course.
Foreign language film: “In a Better World.” Not quite a lock, though.
Documentary feature: “Inside Job.” “Restrepo” could pull the upset.
Documentary short: “Killing in the Name.” Upset possibility: “Strangers No More.”
Animated feature: “Toy Story 3.” It’s a lock.
Animated short film: “The Gruffalo” has the edge, but “Day & Night” from Pixar could win.
Live action short film: “The Confession.” This is just not a category that anyone really can ever lock down, though.
Tiebreaker: How many Oscars will the best picture winner collect? My guess right now: Four — but it depends, of course, on which picture you think will win.